Clarence Swing to ALP Forecasted for the By-election

The ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, says it is likely there will be a swing away from the National party at this weekend’s Clarence by-election.
Saturday’s by-election is to replace former MP Steve Cansdell, who resigned in September, admitting he had falsified a statutory declaration to avoid a speeding fine.
Mr Green says the Nationals are expected to win the seat but there will probably be a significant swing to Labor.
“The main reason there’ll be a swing is that the Labour Party put up little more than a token effort at the general election,” he said.
“They are putting considerable effort into the by-election and the past has shown when Labor bothers and puts a bit of effort in they give the Nationals a bit of a run for their money.
“Which is why the result will be better for Labour than the general election and will look like a substantial swing, when really it’s just a reversion to a more normal looking voting pattern.”
Mr Green’s prediction is that Labor and the Greens will do better in the by-election than they did in the March general election.
“I think it’s highly expected the National party will win the seat but the question is what sort of swing occurs at the election,” he said.
“Labor had a terrible result at the state election, so you’d expect some substantial bounce back for the Labor Party at the by-election.
“There’ll be a substantial swing to Labor.
“I don’t think it’s going to endanger the seat.
“If it does endanger the seat it’ll be a really nasty shock for the National party.”

18 November 11

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• 560 jobs to go at Westpac
• Pacific Highway Open but More Rain to Come
• $2m Grafton Airport Upgrade Critical
• Gas Firm Proposes Underground Salt Solution
• Nationals Hold Clarence
• Clarence Swing to ALP Forecasted for the By-election
• Call for More Casino Police
• Clarence Candidates Quizzed on Power Privatisation
• Nationals Release Coal-Seam Gas Blueprint
• North Coast Housing Industry Takes a Hit
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• Ex-mayor wins Nationals' Preselection for Clarence
• NORBEC Helps Local Businesses
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• Ballina Horse Dies from Hendra
• Push to Return Splendour to Northern Rivers

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